Reliance Q1 FY27 results review
Reliance Q1 FY27: revenue ₹3,11,850 crore (+25.4% YoY), adjusted PAT ₹20,946 crore; 4 of 15 promises due delivered. AlphaResearch Results Rating C (↑), a model output — no target or fair value.
By AlphaResearch · 9 Sept 2026 · 25 min read
RELIANCE
Company: Reliance Industries Ltd. · NSE: RELIANCE · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · large cap · Q1 FY27 results filed 17 Jul 2026 (consolidated, unaudited)
AlphaResearch Results Rating: C (43.9) ↑ — Q1 FY27. Results Quality 72.1 · Management Accountability 39.6 · Outlook Trust 34.7 · Valuation Gap 7.6. 4 of 15 promises that fell due were delivered; the price implies 12.9% growth against 2.7% delivered (stretched). A model output (v1.0), not advice; no target or fair value. Components and the reversal test are in the rating section below.
Quarter in one line. Q1 FY27: revenue ₹3,11,850 cr (+25.4% YoY), adjusted PAT ₹20,946 cr (+14.7%); 4 of 15 promises due delivered, “first battery (BESS) gigafactory starts production” deferred and not mentioned; watch: “three new ethane carriers delivered” (3 ships) by Q2 FY27 (RELIANCE-2026Q1-009).
Key takeaways
- Revenue₹3,11,850 crore, +25.4% YoY and +4.4% QoQ (Exhibit 1).
- ProfitEBITDA ₹47,517 crore at a 15.2% margin (−202 bps YoY); adjusted PAT ₹20,946 crore, +14.7% YoY (Exhibit 1).
- QualityResults Quality 72.1 / 100 on 12 metrics; no earnings-quality flags (Exhibit 5).
- Promises4 of 15 that fell due delivered, 3 dropped silently; Management Accountability 39.6 (Exhibit 6).
- Valuationprice implies 12.9% growth vs 2.7% delivered — gap +10.2 pp, Stretched (Exhibit 9).
Eight quarters
The quarter was shaped by a supply shock, not by demand. The Strait of Hormuz was shut for part of it; Reliance's O2C business had to source crude and naphtha from outside the Middle East at a premium, ran a planned turnaround of its crude and coker units, and diverted propylene into LPG under a government order, so production meant for sale fell 10%. Revenue still rose 25.4% to ₹3,11,850 crore, almost entirely on price: O2C revenue grew 30.4% while its volumes fell. EBITDA before other income rose 10.8% to ₹47,517 crore, and the margin fell 202 bps to 15.2% because a higher crude price inflates the denominator faster than the numerator. O2C segment EBIT rose 13.2% to ₹14,170 crore: wider transport-fuel cracks paid for the costlier feedstock, with room to spare.
Below the operating line the Jio capitalisation is now visible. Depreciation rose 9.1% and finance costs 18.5% to ₹8,337 crore, because interest on 5G assets that used to be capitalised now flows through the P&L. PAT attributable to owners came to ₹20,946 crore. The year-ago comparison needs care: Q1 FY26 carried ₹8,924 crore of profit from the sale of listed investments (the Asian Paints stake), booked through other income. On the company's own recurring basis PAT grew 6.1%; the model's adjusted PAT, which strips other income above twice its trailing median (₹10,574 crore pre-tax in Q1 FY26), grew 14.7%. The model's estimate of the one-off is larger than the disclosed gain because treasury income was also elevated that quarter, so the 6.1% is the company's number and the 14.7% is the model's. Net debt ended the quarter at ₹1,22,914 crore, 0.57x annualised EBITDA, with capex of ₹38,682 crore funded from operating cash; Moody's upgraded Reliance to Baa1 during the quarter.
Exhibit 1 — Reliance Industries Ltd., 8 quarters to Q1 FY27 (₹ crore, consolidated)
| Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,35,481 | 2,43,865 | 2,64,573 | 2,48,660 | 2,58,898 | 2,69,496 | 2,98,621 | 3,11,850 |
| EBITDA | 39,058 | 43,789 | 43,832 | 42,905 | 45,885 | 46,018 | 44,141 | 47,517 |
| EBITDA margin % | 16.6% | 18.0% | 16.6% | 17.3% | 17.7% | 17.1% | 14.8% | 15.2% |
| Other income | 4,876 | 4,214 | 4,905 | 15,119 | 4,482 | 4,914 | 4,447 | 6,550 |
| Depreciation | 12,880 | 13,181 | 13,479 | 13,842 | 14,416 | 14,622 | 14,808 | 15,100 |
| Finance costs | 6,017 | 6,179 | 6,155 | 7,036 | 6,827 | 6,613 | 6,585 | 8,337 |
| Exceptional items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PBT | 25,037 | 28,643 | 29,103 | 37,146 | 29,124 | 29,697 | 27,195 | 30,630 |
| Tax | 5,936 | 6,839 | 6,669 | 6,465 | 6,978 | 7,530 | 6,579 | 7,629 |
| PAT | 16,563 | 18,540 | 19,407 | 26,994 | 18,165 | 18,645 | 16,971 | 20,946 |
| One-off other income | — | — | — | 10,574 | — | — | — | — |
| Adjusted PAT | 16,563 | 18,540 | 19,407 | 18,260 | 18,165 | 18,645 | 16,971 | 20,946 |
| EPS (₹, bonus-adjusted) | 12.24 | 13.70 | 14.34 | 19.95 | 13.42 | 13.78 | 12.54 | 15.48 |
Units: ₹ crore except margins and ratios (%) and EPS (₹). Adjusted PAT = PAT − exceptional items × (1 − effective tax rate) and, where a quarter's other income ran above twice its trailing median, the excess net of tax — treated as a one-off gain booked through other income (Q1 FY26 ₹10,574 crore). EPS is restated to 1,353.2 crore shares from Q3 FY25: Q2 FY25 filed on the pre-bonus share base and is divided by 2 (the factor is the jump in paid-up shares in the filings themselves). Source: NSE results filing and XBRL (17 Jul 2026 filing, unaudited).
Every figure is in Exhibit 1.
Segments
Oil to Chemicals (O2C) produced ₹14,170 crore of segment EBIT in Q1 FY27, 38.6% of the ₹36,674 crore total, against ₹12,521 crore a year earlier (+13.2%) (Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 4 — segment revenue and EBIT, Q1 FY27
| Segment | Revenue Q1 FY27 | Revenue YoY | EBIT Q1 FY27 | EBIT YoY | EBIT margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil to Chemicals (O2C) | 2,01,803 | +30.4% | 14,170 | +13.2% | 7.0% |
| Digital Services | 46,900 | +11.8% | 13,564 | +18.8% | 28.9% |
| Retail | 90,409 | +7.4% | 4,529 | -6.9% | 5.0% |
| Oil and Gas | 6,298 | +3.2% | 3,888 | +9.6% | 61.7% |
| Others | 31,204 | +68.9% | 523 | -21.0% | 1.7% |
Units: ₹ crore; YoY against the same quarter a year earlier. Segment revenue is as filed (gross, before inter-segment elimination), so the segments add to more than consolidated revenue; EBIT is segment results before tax and finance costs. Source: Ind AS 108 segment note in the NSE results XBRL.
Three of the five segments carried the quarter. Digital Services is now the largest profit pool by a distance: segment EBIT ₹13,564 crore, +18.8% YoY, on revenue of ₹46,900 crore; the company reports Jio Platforms EBITDA of ₹20,865 crore at a 53.3% margin, 533 million subscribers and ARPU of ₹215.6, up ₹7 in a year with no tariff action. O2C EBIT rose 13.2% despite lower volumes. Retail is the soft spot: revenue ₹90,409 crore (+7.4%, or 11.6% adjusted for the RCPL demerger), but segment EBIT fell 6.9% to ₹4,529 crore and the company's retail EBITDA slipped 1.1% to ₹6,309 crore, a deliberate trade of margin for scale in quick commerce and dark stores that management says will run for another nine to twelve months. Oil and Gas EBIT rose 9.6% on higher KG-D6 liquids realisation while gas volumes declined. "Others" (JioStar, RCPL, new energy) grew revenue 68.9% to ₹31,204 crore for EBIT of ₹523 crore; RCPL revenue roughly doubled to about ₹8,600 crore and the business is at EBITDA breakeven.
Results Quality: 72.1 / 100
12 of 15 metrics available. Weakest: EBITDA margin change YoY at -202 bps (score 16); strongest: Revenue growth YoY at +25.4% (score 100). Each metric is scored 0–100 on the fixed range shown; the block weights are in the model reference.
Exhibit 5 — Results Quality metrics, Q1 FY27
| Metric | Value | Benchmark | Range | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth YoY | +25.4% | — | −10 → 25 | 100.0 | 1 |
| Revenue growth QoQ | +4.4% | — | −10 → 15 | 57.7 | 0.5 |
| EBITDA growth YoY | +10.8% | — | −15 → 30 | 57.2 | 1 |
| Adjusted PAT growth YoY | +14.7% | — | −15 → 30 | 66.0 | 1 |
| Revenue growth vs own trailing median | +14.9 pp | 10.5% | −10 → 10 | 100.0 | 1 |
| Adjusted PAT growth vs own trailing median | +14.1 pp | 0.6% | −10 → 10 | 100.0 | 1 |
| EBITDA margin change YoY | -202 bps | — | −300 → 300 | 16.4 | 1 |
| EBITDA margin change QoQ | +46 bps | — | −200 → 200 | 61.4 | 0.5 |
| Other income share of PBT | 21.4% | — | 5 → 40 | 53.2 | 1 |
| Exceptional items share of PBT (abs) | 0.0% | — | 0 → 20 | 100.0 | 0.5 |
| Effective tax rate deviation from 25.17% | +0.3 pp | 25.2% | 0 → 15 | 98.3 | 0.5 |
| CFO / PAT (half-yearly) | — (not_half_year) | — | 0.4 → 1.2 | — | 1 |
| Finance-cost growth minus revenue growth | -6.9 pp | — | −20 → 20 | 67.3 | 0.5 |
| Receivable days change YoY | — (balance_sheet_unavailable) | — | −20 → 20 | — | 0.5 |
| Actual vs own numeric guidance | — (no_guidance_due) | — | −10 → 10 | — | 1.5 |
Units: as stated per row. Source: computed by the AlphaResearch Results Model from Exhibit 1.
Earnings-quality flags: none.
Promise Ledger
What management said in earlier quarters, and what Q1 FY27 showed. Every row carries the verbatim sentence and its page; a promise is never deleted, only re-scored.
Fifteen promises fell due by Q1 FY27 and four were delivered: the RCPL demerger, the first solar-cell line at Jamnagar, the start of the Jio IPO process (the DRHP went to SEBI this quarter) and, a quarter late, the Kurnool beverage plant. The pattern in the other eleven is consistent, and it is why Management Accountability scores 39.6. Every new-energy milestone dated in mid-2025 has been pushed out: battery cells from "early next year" to "this year", Kutch generation from "the first half of next year" to "after the monsoons", ingot-wafer and polysilicon from "the current year" to "the next few quarters", and in no call did management refer back to the earlier date. That is what a candour score of 6.5 measures: the slips are real, but each was restated as if fresh and none was acknowledged. The smaller consumer promises (the Yousta store pipeline, mass-market JioFrames, Waggies pet food) simply stopped being mentioned. None of this is a balance-sheet or governance question. It is a calibration question, and each FY27 date is now the working deadline that the ledger will score against the original one.
Exhibit 6 — promises that fell due by Q1 FY27
| Promise | Made in | Target | Due | Status | Acknowledgement | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCPL (FMCG) demerger completed | Q2 FY26 | Demerger of the consumer-products business (RCPL) to take effect in November 2025 after NCLT approval | Q3 FY26 | delivered | owned, no cause | transcript p. 3: "The NCLT approval has come through so this is something that the de-merger will happen in November, but we are waiting for the written judgment on that one." |
| First solar PV cell line commissioned at Jamnagar | Q2 FY26 | First solar cell gigafactory line starts up at Jamnagar in the following month | Q3 FY26 | delivered | owned, no cause | transcript p. 21: "So, I am happy to say that our solar cell gigafactories will be starting up in the next month at Jamnagar." |
| First battery (BESS) gigafactory starts production | Q2 FY26 | First battery (BESS) gigafactory at Jamnagar commissioned progressively during FY27 | Q4 FY27 | deferred | not mentioned | transcript p. 21: "So happy to say that we are making very good progress in starting up our first battery factories by early next year." |
| Deep-water rig drills KG-D6 wells | Q2 FY26 | Deep-water rig arrives at KG-D6 later in calendar 2026 to drill R-cluster and MJ/MGA wells | Q3 FY27 | deferred | not mentioned | transcript p. 16: "So, we have got a deep-water rig come to our block in the next year, the first quarter of next year, and drill wells." |
| Yousta store pipeline opened | Q2 FY26 | A significantly large pipeline of Yousta stores becomes operational within the next two quarters (beyond the 100-store milestone) | Q4 FY26 | dropped silently | not mentioned | transcript p. 12: "Yousta reached a milestone of 100 stores with a significantly large number of stores which are in the pipeline and will become operational in the next two quarters." |
| JioFrames mass-market launch | Q2 FY26 | Mass-scale JioFrames AI smart-glasses models reach the market over the next few months at India-suited price points | Q4 FY26 | dropped silently | not mentioned | transcript p. 9: "We will have some models coming in reasonably soon, but the mass scale models should come over the next few months." |
| RE-RTC solar generation commissioning in Kutch | Q2 FY26 | Start commissioning solar generation in Kutch within 12–15 months of January 2026 (by ~April 2027) | Q4 FY27 | deferred | not mentioned | presentation p. 62: "Expected to start commissioning solar generation during 1st half of next year for captive requirements + green fuels production" |
| RCPL beverage bottling capacity | Q3 FY26 | ≥ 2 x existing capacity | Q4 FY26 | partly delivered | reframed | transcript p. 12: "We will be more than doubling our capacity on beverages this year. We have high-speed lines across 12 states during the year." |
| Kurnool beverage plant (first food park) operational | Q3 FY26 | First food-park beverage plant at Kurnool operational (commissioned partially by July 2026, one quarter after the March 2026 target) | Q1 FY27 | delivered | — | transcript p. 12: "In fact, one of the beverage plants at Kurnool will be ready by March itself." |
| Waggies pet-food national scale-up | Q3 FY26 | Scale the pet-nutrition category from southern-city pilots to wider markets over the next couple of quarters | Q1 FY27 | dropped silently | not mentioned | transcript p. 13: "We have piloted this in southern cities, and we plan to scale this up in next couple of quarters." |
| SIL instant noodles expansion beyond four launch cities | Q3 FY26 | Expand SIL instant noodles beyond the four launch cities in the next quarter | Q4 FY26 | missed | reframed | transcript p. 13: "This is currently being launched in four cities, and we plan to expand this in next quarter." |
| Ingot and wafer gigafactory commissioned and ramped to 10 GWp | Q3 FY26 | 10 GWp | Q3 FY27 | deferred | not mentioned | transcript p. 23: "in next few quarters, we will have ingot and wafer both these facilities at the giga scale commissioned and fully ramped up to 10-gigawatt peak during the current year." |
| Polysilicon and solar-glass plants commissioned | Q3 FY26 | 10 GWp | Q3 FY27 | deferred | not mentioned | transcript p. 23: "During this current year, we will again commission these facilities, fully ramped up to the capacity of 10-gigawatt peak" |
| Kutch RE project key contracts awarded | Q3 FY26 | All key contracts for the Kutch renewable generation site awarded by Q4 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | partly delivered | reframed | transcript p. 23: "All the key contracts have been awarded or will get awarded in next quarter." |
| Jio IPO process start | Q3 FY26 | Government notification received and Jio IPO process finalised and started within the next few months | Q1 FY27 | delivered | — | transcript p. 35: "but it is imminent now, so we are just awaiting the final notification, so it should happen in the next few months for sure." |
Source: company filings on NSE listed under Sources; status per the AlphaResearch Results Model, extracted_by recorded per row in data/results/RELIANCE/ledger.json.
- RCPL (FMCG) demerger completed · Clearsdelivered; owned, no cause. Target: “demerger of the consumer-products business (RCPL) to take effect in November 2025 after NCLT approval”, due Q3 FY26.
- First solar PV cell line commissioned at Jamnagar · Clearsdelivered; owned, no cause. Target: “first solar cell gigafactory line starts up at Jamnagar in the following month”, due Q3 FY26.
- First battery (BESS) gigafactory starts production · Partialdeferred; not mentioned. Target: “first battery (BESS) gigafactory at Jamnagar commissioned progressively during FY27”, due Q4 FY27.
- Deep-water rig drills KG-D6 wells · Partialdeferred; not mentioned. Target: “deep-water rig arrives at KG-D6 later in calendar 2026 to drill R-cluster and MJ/MGA wells”, due Q3 FY27.
- Yousta store pipeline opened · Failsdropped silently; not mentioned. Target: “a significantly large pipeline of Yousta stores becomes operational within the next two quarters (beyond the 100-store milestone)”, due Q4 FY26.
- JioFrames mass-market launch · Failsdropped silently; not mentioned. Target: “mass-scale JioFrames AI smart-glasses models reach the market over the next few months at India-suited price points”, due Q4 FY26.
- RE-RTC solar generation commissioning in Kutch · Partialdeferred; not mentioned. Target: “start commissioning solar generation in Kutch within 12–15 months of January 2026 (by ~April 2027)”, due Q4 FY27.
- RCPL beverage bottling capacity · Partialpartly delivered; reframed. Target: ≥ 2 x existing capacity, due Q4 FY26.
- Kurnool beverage plant (first food park) operational · Clearsdelivered. Target: “first food-park beverage plant at Kurnool operational (commissioned partially by July 2026, one quarter after the March 2026 target)”, due Q1 FY27.
- Waggies pet-food national scale-up · Failsdropped silently; not mentioned. Target: “scale the pet-nutrition category from southern-city pilots to wider markets over the next couple of quarters”, due Q1 FY27.
- SIL instant noodles expansion beyond four launch cities · Failsmissed; reframed. Target: “expand SIL instant noodles beyond the four launch cities in the next quarter”, due Q4 FY26.
- Ingot and wafer gigafactory commissioned and ramped to 10 GWp · Partialdeferred; not mentioned. Target: 10 GWp, due Q3 FY27.
- Polysilicon and solar-glass plants commissioned · Partialdeferred; not mentioned. Target: 10 GWp, due Q3 FY27.
- Kutch RE project key contracts awarded · Partialpartly delivered; reframed. Target: “all key contracts for the Kutch renewable generation site awarded by Q4 FY26”, due Q4 FY26.
- Jio IPO process start · Clearsdelivered. Target: “Government notification received and Jio IPO process finalised and started within the next few months”, due Q1 FY27.
Pass = delivered; partial = partly delivered or deferred; fail = missed or dropped silently. Status per the AlphaResearch Results Model; every row is in Exhibit 6.
Management Accountability: 39.6 / 100
Delivery 43.6 · Candour 6.5 · Specificity 70 · Drift penalty 0. 15 promise(s) fell due inside the four-quarter window.
Guidance calibration
12 numeric promises fell due in the last eight quarters; hit rate 37.5%; bias — (on target). Grade: Unreliable.
Outlook
Outlook Trust: Unreliable (trust index 34.7). Outlook Trust grades how far this management's forward statements have earned trust — past calibration, candour on misses and how specific the new statements are — not whether the outlook is bullish.
The eleven new statements are of mixed quality. The best are dated and countable: three ethane carriers by around September 2026, beverage launches in Australia and Africa in Q2 FY27, 40 GWh of battery capacity in FY27, and a three-year plan to double Reliance Retail's operating EBITDA from the FY26 base of ₹27,033 crore. The weakest are the ones investors most want: no capex figure for FY27 (the CFO declined to give one), no commissioning date for the 168 MW Meta data centre at Jamnagar, and a Jio ARPU trajectory that management still frames as 4–5% organic when the quarter delivered 3.4%. The Outlook Trust grade of Unreliable is a statement about the record, not the strategy: of 12 numeric promises that fell due in the last eight quarters, 37.5% landed.
Exhibit 8 — forward statements made in Q1 FY27
| Statement | Category | Target | Due | Specificity | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Retail operating EBITDA doubling (3-year objective) | guidance | 2 x FY26 EBITDA | Q4 FY29 | numeric, dated | transcript p. 23: "It is a target that we are taking that is our ambition we would not be putting it out unless we were confident about it." |
| Retail margin and cash conversion from online scale | margin | Scale built in FY27 converts into higher EBITDA margins and cash generation over the following two years | Q2 FY29 | directional | transcript p. 8: "the benefit of that scale will convert into value in terms of margins and cash generation over the next two years." |
| Dark-store network expansion | expansion | Keep expanding the dark-store network for at least the next 9–12 months, market by market where unit economics hold | Q1 FY28 | directional | transcript p. 22: "we will continue our expansion of our dark store network. At least next 12 months, I think in the next nine to 10 months it will continue." |
| Retail revenue growth acceleration | guidance | ≥ 12 % YoY (base to beat) | Q1 FY28 | directional | transcript p. 27: "so, as the share of online grows, one would expect revenue growth to accelerate from where it is today." |
| Beverage entry into Australia and African markets | launch | Enter Australia and African markets with beverages in Q2 FY27 (Campa cans manufactured in Australia; launch end-July 2026) | Q2 FY27 | numeric, dated | transcript p. 11: "For the next quarter, we plan to kind of enter into Australia and African markets." |
| Greenfield beverage plant fully commissioned | capex | The partially commissioned greenfield beverage plant ('one of the largest in Asia', Kurnool integrated food park) reaches full readiness | Q1 FY28 | directional | transcript p. 11: "We have commissioned it partially and should be completely ready. This is also an integrated food park facility where for all other categories also the work has started." |
| RCPL revenue | guidance | ₹1,00,000 cr | Q4 FY30 | numeric, dated | transcript p. 30: "we have anyway announced the target is to kind of take this to Rs.1 lakh Crores on FY2030." |
| RCPL EBITDA | margin | RCPL EBITDA to improve from breakeven as scale and the supply chain build out | Q1 FY28 | directional | transcript p. 30: "yes, we are breakeven on EBITDA terms, but EBITDA will improve as a scale and all the supply chain is kind of put it across" |
| Three new ethane carriers delivered | capex | 3 ships | Q2 FY27 | numeric, dated | transcript p. 18: "by next month we should be getting it. So that will, the delivery and the subsequent two ships are also likely to get delivered in next couple of months." |
| Meta data centre at Jamnagar (168 MW) | capex | 168 MW | Q1 FY28 | numeric, undated | transcript p. 26: "There is a clear timeline for the commissioning of that project. It is commercially sensitive, therefore I am not going to speak about it" |
| Kutch daily installation rate (solar and battery) | capex | 55 MWp per day | Q3 FY28 | numeric, dated | presentation p. 68: "All work is aimed at scaling up of execution to 55 MWp solar and 150 MWh batteries on daily basis by next year." |
Source: company filings on NSE listed under Sources. Each row enters the Promise Ledger and is re-scored when it falls due.
Valuation Gap
Valuation Gap: Stretched (7.6 / 100). Method: reverse DCF on adjusted PAT as a free-cash-flow proxy. Price ₹1,294.90 on 8 Sep 2026 (NSE official close × shares outstanding per the filing); market cap ₹17,52,388 crore; P/E 23.4x TTM adjusted.
The price implies 12.9% annual growth in free cash flow over the next 10 years; the company has delivered 2.7%. Gap +10.2 pp → Stretched. Assumptions: cost of equity 12.3% = 6.8% 10-year G-sec + 1 × 5.5% premium; terminal growth 4.0%; base cash flow ₹74,727 crore.
Exhibit 9 — implied growth (%) by cost of equity and terminal growth
| Cost of equity \ terminal growth | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% |
| 12.3% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 11.8% |
| 13.3% | 15.6% | 14.8% | 13.8% |
Units: implied annual growth, %. Source: AlphaResearch Results Model on the price and base cash flow above.
The gap is wide because the base is low, and the base is low for a reason worth stating. Adjusted PAT over the last eight quarters has compounded at 2.7% a year: FY25 was flat for O2C, retail slowed as it was re-organised, and the Jio tariff hike of 2024 has washed through. The price asks for 12.9% a year for ten years. Jio is already compounding EBITDA at 15% and retail has set itself a doubling target, so the gap is not absurd; it is a statement that the market is paying today for the new-energy complex, the Jio listing and the retail turnaround before any of the three has shown up in consolidated earnings. The sensitivity table shows how little the conclusion depends on the discount rate: even at an 11.3% cost of equity and 5% terminal growth, the implied rate is 9.6%, more than three times what has been delivered.
No fair value or target is published; the gap is expressed only as growth rates and a grade.
What to watch next quarter
Exhibit 10 — dated triggers
| Metric | Test | Due | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Three new ethane carriers delivered | = 3 ships | Q2 FY27 | promise RELIANCE-2026Q1-009 |
| Beverage entry into Australia and African markets | done by the due date | Q2 FY27 | promise RELIANCE-2026Q1-005 |
Source: open numeric ledger promises due within the next two quarters (management-dated first, earliest due) or, when there is none, the weakest Results Quality metric at the value that scores 50. Promises due later stay in the ledger, not here.
AlphaResearch Results Rating
C (43.9) ↑ — Q1 FY27. Coverage full; previous quarter D (33.7), +1 band(s).
Exhibit 11 — the four components
| Component | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|
| Results Quality | 72.1 | 0.35 |
| Management Accountability | 39.6 | 0.30 |
| Outlook Trust | 34.7 | 0.15 |
| Valuation Gap | 7.6 | 0.20 |
Source: AlphaResearch Results Model v1.0; weights renormalise over the components available.
The C is an average of a strong quarter and a weak record. Results Quality at 72 says the operating numbers were good under difficult conditions. Management Accountability at 39.6 and Outlook Trust at 34.7 say that the forward statements have not yet earned the benefit of the doubt, and Valuation Gap at 7.6 says the price already assumes they will. The grade moved up one band from D because Q1 FY27 delivered two dated promises (the IPO filing and the Kurnool plant) and because revenue and adjusted PAT growth ran well ahead of their own trailing medians. What would move it further is not another good O2C quarter but a new-energy milestone landing on the date first given for it.
What changes this rating: the triggers in Exhibit 10 — all due within the next two quarters — are the reversal test: “three new ethane carriers delivered” (3 ships) by Q2 FY27; “beverage entry into Australia and African markets” by Q2 FY27. A miss re-scores the promise (and Management Accountability) at the filing in which it falls due, starting with Q2 FY27; a delivered print moves it the other way. The composite is recomputed on every new filing, and a move of two bands in one quarter is flagged for review.
AlphaResearch Results Rating is the output of a published quantitative and qualitative model (v1.0) applied to public filings; it is AlphaResearch's independent opinion, not personalised investment advice, and carries no target price or fair value.
Position disclosure: none.
Sources
- Financial results Q1 FY27 (consolidated) (accessed 9 Sept 2026)
- Transcript (accessed 9 Sept 2026)
- Presentation (accessed 9 Sept 2026)
- Press release (accessed 9 Sept 2026)